Fire25-

Implied probability: 2.2%
Current value: $51.69
Potential payout: $2.35K
Potential profit: $2.3K
Multiplier: 45.45x
User PnL: -$18.31

Yes position

Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.28K
Potential profit: $2.28K
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82K
Potential profit: $1.82K
User PnL: -$27.2

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$50.22

No position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.01K
Potential profit: $1.01K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?

Ends Jan 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $891.27
Potential profit: $891.27
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $421.13
Potential profit: $420.92
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$79.79

Yes position

Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$46.4

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $329.16
Potential profit: $329.16
User PnL: -$126.51

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $280
Potential profit: $280
User PnL: -$31.68

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $230
Potential profit: $230
User PnL: -$14.49

Yes position

Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

Ends Oct 24, 2027

Implied probability: 49%
Current value: $98.39
Potential payout: $200.8
Potential profit: $102.41
Multiplier: 2.04x
User PnL: -$4.51

Yes position

Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $198.34
Potential profit: $198.34
User PnL: -$41.43

Yes position

Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $114.17
Potential profit: $114.17
User PnL: -$40

Novak Djokovic position

Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $101.31
Potential profit: $101.31
User PnL: -$58

Yes position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$30

No position

Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $75
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.53
Potential profit: $73.53
User PnL: -$50

No position

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $52.88
Potential payout: $60.47
Potential profit: $7.59
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.53
Potential profit: $36.53
User PnL: -$26.3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $335.21

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $212.57

Yes position

Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $186.01

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $176.68

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.1

Yes position

Will the government shutdown end November 13?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.34

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.89

No position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 99.8%
User PnL: $80.81

No position

French election called by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.12

No position

Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.88

No position

Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?

Ends Oct 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.63

Yes position

Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.03

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.54

Yes position

Will Zohran Mamdani get between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2025 NYC mayoral election?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.4

Yes position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.17

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.26

No position

Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
User PnL: $21.57

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $19.73

Yes position

Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.47

Yes position

Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $18.4

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.25

Yes position

No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.5

Yes position

Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.96

Yes position

Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?