Polymarket Trader

xtesting

0xf6f4c83d8955ba1586af50ea22f4e0d41bb89aee

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $408.19
Realized PnL: $614.32
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $121.25
Potential payout: $563.93
Potential profit: $442.69
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$4.82

No position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 21.5%
Current value: $35.47
Potential payout: $165
Potential profit: $129.52
Multiplier: 4.65x
User PnL: -$2.52

Yes position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 97.3%
Current value: $142.1
Potential payout: $146.05
Potential profit: $3.94
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $13.04

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.3%
Current value: $67.55
Potential payout: $140.01
Potential profit: $72.46
Multiplier: 2.07x
User PnL: -$2.31

Yes position

Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $13.93
Potential payout: $59.26
Potential profit: $45.34
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$2.35

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 32.6%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $17.22
Potential profit: $11.61
Multiplier: 3.07x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $14.98
Potential profit: $9.21
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.07

No position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $7.75
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $2.25
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 81.3%
Current value: $8.12
Potential payout: $9.99
Potential profit: $1.87
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will France win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5
Potential profit: $5
User PnL: -$1.15

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 15.9%
Current value: $0.52
Potential payout: $3.29
Potential profit: $2.77
Multiplier: 6.31x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $2.82
Potential profit: $2.69
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.35

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.7
Potential profit: $2.7
User PnL: -$0.44

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.8%
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $248.64

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.14x
User PnL: $88.7

Yes position

Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.6%
Multiplier: 5.10x
User PnL: $51.23

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 2.7%
Multiplier: 37.04x
User PnL: $42.39

Up position

SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Multiplier: 13.61x
User PnL: $32.02

No position

Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.8%
Multiplier: 1.93x
User PnL: $29.57

Yes position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $23.65

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 18.8%
Multiplier: 5.33x
User PnL: $23.2

No position

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 8?

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: $21.65

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.99

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: $12

Yes position

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.95

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $6.49

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6

Yes position

Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?

Ends Jul 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.25

No position

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $1.55

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 21.8%
Multiplier: 4.60x
User PnL: $1.44

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 98.7%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.5

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 29.5%
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: $0.2

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?

Ends Jul 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-04?

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 8?

No 51% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 8?

No 49% 45 shares
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?

Down 87% 59.01 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on July 8?

Yes 63% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

No 6% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Yes 94.2% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Yes 94% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

No 8% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

No 6% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Yes 92% 25 shares
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 8?

Yes 95% 25 shares
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?

Down 90.8% 20 shares