0xF7790AafC0EeF13E5dEAd78f565C8688E681d36f-1761398343106

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17K
Potential profit: $17K
User PnL: -$35.04

Yes position

Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$11

Yes position

Will Roma win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.64K
Potential profit: $3.64K
User PnL: -$36.45

Yes position

Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $5.38
Potential payout: $3.59K
Potential profit: $3.58K
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$242.28

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $1.48
Potential payout: $2.96K
Potential profit: $2.96K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$271.49

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $9.58
Potential payout: $2.74K
Potential profit: $2.73K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$206.69

Yes position

Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $146.72
Potential payout: $2.67K
Potential profit: $2.52K
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$18.57

Yes position

Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $2.3K
Potential profit: $2.29K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$53.36

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $96.05
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: -$111.08

Yes position

Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $5.27
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$89.53

Yes position

Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.48K
Potential profit: $1.48K
User PnL: -$55.25

Yes position

Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.31K
Potential profit: $1.31K
User PnL: -$33.79

Yes position

Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $52.31
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $963.36
Multiplier: 19.42x
User PnL: -$22.43

Yes position

Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $60.83
Potential payout: $811.02
Potential profit: $750.19
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$93.47

Yes position

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $9.2
Potential payout: $799.98
Potential profit: $790.78
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$37.12

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $32.95
Potential payout: $759.29
Potential profit: $726.34
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$51.93

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $22.63
Potential payout: $729.98
Potential profit: $707.35
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$56.36

Yes position

U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $721.59
Potential profit: $720.5
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$176.69

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $10.85
Potential payout: $700
Potential profit: $689.15
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$42.31

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $14.53
Potential payout: $692.05
Potential profit: $677.52
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$55.78

Yes position

Will Arsenal finish in 3rd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $675.41
Potential profit: $675.41
User PnL: -$34.76

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $12.52
Potential payout: $658.87
Potential profit: $646.36
Multiplier: 52.63x
User PnL: -$54.73

Yes position

Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $67.19
Potential payout: $639.92
Potential profit: $572.73
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$35.8

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $577.1
Potential profit: $577.1
User PnL: -$63.78

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $288.79

Yes position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $249.3

Yes position

Will Ciena (CIEN) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $133.91

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.64

Yes position

Will Meta reach $720 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.7

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56

Yes position

Will Meta reach $700 in January?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.5

Yes position

Will Ilhan Omar be charged with fraud?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $36.56

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: $35.18

Yes position

Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.98

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $25.76

No position

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $23.97

Yes position

Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?

Implied probability: 12%
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: $19.4

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 5.6%
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: $18.7

No position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.33

Yes position

Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $17.31

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: $15.85

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $480 end of January?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.01

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.69

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.96

Yes position

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.73

No position

Will Vertiv Holdings (VRT) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.46

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?