No position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$5
Polymarket Trader
Fredl
0xf7fe03ce4a4220b51e97756e0db8e6a252f8e61e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $169.32
- Realized PnL
- $2.19K
- Win rate
- 37.5%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.48K
- Potential profit
- $3.48K
- User PnL
- -$170
Yes position
Will Hezbollah disarm by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.65K
- Potential profit
- $2.65K
- User PnL
- -$125.96
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $2.03K
- User PnL
- -$96
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.72K
- Potential profit
- $1.72K
- User PnL
- -$380
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $169.32
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $998.4
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$130.68
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 16?
Ends Mar 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 3-9?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $928.08
- Potential profit
- $928.08
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $916.67
- Potential profit
- $916.67
- User PnL
- -$110
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $902.56
- Potential profit
- $902.56
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $785.03
- Potential profit
- $785.03
- User PnL
- -$204
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $703.3
- Potential profit
- $703.3
- User PnL
- -$28
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $500
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $378.76
- Potential profit
- $378.76
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $274.91
- Potential profit
- $274.91
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $230.77
- Potential profit
- $230.77
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $157.14
- Potential profit
- $157.14
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?
Ends Apr 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $94.02
- Potential profit
- $94.02
- User PnL
- -$24.44
No position
Will the US strike Somalia next?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.26
- Potential profit
- $32.26
- User PnL
- -$10
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $623.53
Yes position
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $306.09
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $226.65
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $196.91
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.3
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.89
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.91
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.68
Yes position
Will Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.01
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.69
No position
U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.88
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.15
No position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$14.08
Yes position
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.83
Yes position
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.79
Yes position
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.29
Yes position
Kurds declare independence from Iran?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22.51
Yes position
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22.9
Yes position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$35.39
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$37.97
No position
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$45.59
Yes position
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.21
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-04-26?Yes 26% 91.88 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?Yes 0.3% 2,925.65 shares
- Iran leadership change by April 30?Yes 2.8% 579.83 shares
- Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?No 23% 1,217.39 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Yes 2.9% 2,738.71 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Yes 18% 1,111.11 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?Yes 4.7% 2,027.53 shares
- US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?Yes 5% 690.11 shares
- Iran leadership change by March 31?Yes 5.3% 456.75 shares
- Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026?Yes 0.9% 3,992.54 shares
- Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Yes 4.2% 2,738.72 shares
- Kurds declare independence from Iran?Yes 14.9% 520.97 shares