Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 22.5%
- Current value
- $1.01K
- Potential payout
- $4.5K
- Potential profit
- $3.49K
- Multiplier
- 4.44x
- User PnL
- $112.5
Polymarket Trader
0xf86f074c2aA7191533c50C77899148494bCE256F-1769438581583
0xf86f074c2aa7191533c50c77899148494bce256f
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.18K
- Realized PnL
- $13.5K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 8%
- Current value
- $218.17
- Potential payout
- $2.74K
- Potential profit
- $2.53K
- Multiplier
- 12.58x
- User PnL
- -$815.49
Yes position
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $2.4K
- User PnL
- -$394.58
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $66.15
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.03K
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$65.25
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.1K
- Potential profit
- $2.1K
- User PnL
- -$1.66K
Y
Yes position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 17%
- Current value
- $311.5
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.52K
- Multiplier
- 5.88x
- User PnL
- $68.9
Yes position
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $19.11
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$181.09
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.3%
- Current value
- $1.35K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $252
- Multiplier
- 1.19x
- User PnL
- $163.6
Yes position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.5K
- User PnL
- -$510
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $3.5
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.4K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$296.5
No position
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.25K
- User PnL
- -$855.41
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Current value
- $492.07
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $665.75
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- -$249.46
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.13K
- Potential profit
- $1.13K
- User PnL
- -$731.91
No position
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $1.03K
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $66.55
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $136.95
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.8%
- Current value
- $156.15
- Potential payout
- $929.47
- Potential profit
- $773.32
- Multiplier
- 5.95x
- User PnL
- -$362.87
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $900
- User PnL
- -$144
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $894.99
- Potential profit
- $894.99
- User PnL
- -$384.85
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $800
- User PnL
- -$30.4
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $84.09
- Potential payout
- $622.89
- Potential profit
- $538.8
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$165.07
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $57
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $543
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$45
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $27.59
- Potential payout
- $501.63
- Potential profit
- $474.04
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$173.03
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66%
- Current value
- $329.99
- Potential payout
- $499.99
- Potential profit
- $170
- Multiplier
- 1.52x
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $21.2
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $378.8
- Multiplier
- 18.87x
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $260
- User PnL
- -$202.8
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 9, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $944.95
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $797.48
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $737
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $672.21
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $644.4
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 6, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $612.7
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $532.06
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $500.38
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $454.68
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $421.75
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $375
Yes position
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 3, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $354.79
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $322.31
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $317.3
No position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $316.68
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.79
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $278
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $270.04
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $268.65
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $231.72
Yes position
Will Israel strike Gaza on March 7, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $155.86
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes 14% 511.57 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes 13% 84.7 shares
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?Yes 13% 1,200 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 14.1% 622.87 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Yes 7% 1,700 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Yes 95% 500 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 43.9% 600 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?Yes 74.9% 1,271.35 shares
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Yes 81% 600 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 49% 1,125.99 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 49% 400 shares
- US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?No 49% 700 shares