0xf885...d719

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $10.09
Potential payout: $4.04K
Potential profit: $4.02K
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: $2.02

Yes position

Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $2
Potential payout: $4K
Potential profit: $4K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $7.75
Potential payout: $674.34
Potential profit: $666.58
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: -$14.87

No position

Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $101.83
Potential payout: $313.34
Potential profit: $211.5
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$20.06

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $292.49
Potential profit: $291.18
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$33.84

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $198.8
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$9

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $93.8
Potential payout: $182.14
Potential profit: $88.34
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: $22.77

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 95.2%
Current value: $171.63
Potential payout: $180.38
Potential profit: $8.75
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $23.8

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $148.06
Potential payout: $171.17
Potential profit: $23.11
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: -$0.6

No position

Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $133.34
Potential payout: $141.85
Potential profit: $8.51
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.02

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $89.87
Potential payout: $139.33
Potential profit: $49.46
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$12.94

No position

Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 96.4%
Current value: $121.45
Potential payout: $126.05
Potential profit: $4.6
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $10.86

No position

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 97.9%
Current value: $118.11
Potential payout: $120.64
Potential profit: $2.53
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $15.2

No position

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $95.93
Potential payout: $117.71
Potential profit: $21.79
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.77

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 97.1%
Current value: $105.99
Potential payout: $109.21
Potential profit: $3.22
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.66

No position

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $98.95
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $47.95

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $99.77
Potential profit: $99.72
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.04

No position

Iran leadership change by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $96.25
Potential payout: $96.93
Potential profit: $0.68
User PnL: $6.04

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $84.84
Potential payout: $91.72
Potential profit: $6.88
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $90.39
Potential payout: $91.49
Potential profit: $1.1
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $7

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $36.32
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $42.63
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $6.32

No position

Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $70.37
Potential payout: $71.12
Potential profit: $0.75
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $8.5

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $47.57
Potential payout: $69.45
Potential profit: $21.88
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$2.43

Yes position

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $69.11
Potential profit: $68.83
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$1.17

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.63

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $109.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.63

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.72

SK Gaming position

LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.28

Cloud9 position

Valorant: MIBR vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $80.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.12

Sentinels position

LoL: Team Liquid vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.33

Dplus KIA position

LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.9

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $69.64

Yes position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $67.93

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.71

Hanwha Life Esports position

LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.11

SK Gaming position

LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.52

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.15

LOUD position

Valorant: Team Envy vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.62

Kiwoom DRX position

LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.61

Kiwoom DRX position

LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner

Ends May 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.91

Leviatán Esports position

Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.6

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET