jacdefi

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.12K
Potential profit: $1.12K
User PnL: -$107.16

Yes position

Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $318.15
Potential payout: $922.45
Potential profit: $604.3
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$93.62

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $722.22
Potential profit: $722.22
User PnL: -$45

Yes position

2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $294.97
Potential payout: $710.77
Potential profit: $415.8
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$31.03

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $608.11
Potential profit: $608.11
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $497.49
Potential profit: $497.49
User PnL: -$198.63

Yes position

100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?

Ends Nov 1, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $427.06
Potential profit: $427.06
User PnL: -$60

Yes position

Will Gold close between $3800 and $3900 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$28

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $46.3
Potential payout: $370.37
Potential profit: $324.07
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $36.3

Yes position

Will Gold close between $3700 and $3800 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $363.63
Potential profit: $363.63
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will Gold close between $3600 and $3700 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.51
Potential profit: $357.51
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 10%
Current value: $20
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $180
Multiplier: 10.00x
User PnL: -$76

Yes position

Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $200
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.8%
Current value: $11.5
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $188.5
Multiplier: 17.39x
User PnL: -$14.5

Yes position

Will November be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $36
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $164
Multiplier: 5.56x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will December be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $37.99
Potential payout: $199.94
Potential profit: $161.95
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $8

No position

Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93%
Current value: $172.94
Potential payout: $185.96
Potential profit: $13.02
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $66.95

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 12.7%
Current value: $22.44
Potential payout: $176.7
Potential profit: $154.26
Multiplier: 7.87x
User PnL: $12.44

Yes position

Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $27.22
Potential payout: $143.25
Potential profit: $116.03
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: $10.03

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 10.6%
Current value: $14.64
Potential payout: $138.14
Potential profit: $123.5
Multiplier: 9.43x
User PnL: $6.48

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $14.1
Potential payout: $119.99
Potential profit: $105.89
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: $4.5

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $111.11
Potential profit: $111.11
User PnL: -$10

No position

Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $110
User PnL: -$50.2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Ethereum all time high before 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $476.35

Yes position

Solana all time high before 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $215.35

Yes position

Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.63

Yes position

Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $165.77

80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $131.46

Yes position

Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $90.26

Gold position

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.3

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60

No position

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $51.4

Yes position

Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.27

Yes position

Will Brentford win on 2025-09-27?

Ends Sep 27, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $39.12

100k position

Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

US debt downgrade in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.28

Yes position

Circle IPO in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.92

Yes position

Maduro leaves Venezuela by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27

Yes position

Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-05-18?

Ends May 18, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Yes position

Will Real Betis vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?

Ends Sep 24, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Yes position

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17?

Ends Jan 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.23

Yes position

Will Sunderland AFC vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?

Ends Sep 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.67

Yes position

Will Brentford win on 2025-11-09?

Ends Nov 9, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.71

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?