homerkhan

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $1.99K
Potential payout: $12.91K
Potential profit: $10.91K
Multiplier: 6.47x
User PnL: $994.03

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $187.17
Potential payout: $7.64K
Potential profit: $7.45K
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$81.28

Yes position

Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $7.96
Potential payout: $1.99K
Potential profit: $1.98K
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$82.42

Yes position

Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $11.14
Potential payout: $1.86K
Potential profit: $1.85K
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$4.78

Yes position

Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 30.5%
Current value: $415.24
Potential payout: $1.36K
Potential profit: $946.2
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: -$56.48

Yes position

Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $77.1
Potential payout: $907.05
Potential profit: $829.95
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$78.9

Yes position

Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $277.23
Potential payout: $684.51
Potential profit: $407.29
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: $7.13

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $331.96
Potential payout: $638.38
Potential profit: $306.42
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: -$69.13

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $84.75
Potential payout: $513.67
Potential profit: $428.91
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$109.04

Yes position

Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $9.11
Potential payout: $434
Potential profit: $424.89
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$25.91

Yes position

Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.21
Potential payout: $402.45
Potential profit: $400.23
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$22.63

Yes position

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $299.99
Potential profit: $298.19
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$23.15

No position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $115.49
Potential payout: $292.37
Potential profit: $176.89
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $5.11

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $74.77
Potential payout: $213.63
Potential profit: $138.86
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: $10.31

Yes position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $208.33
Potential profit: $208.33
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $162.98
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $37.02
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $3.98

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $12.69
Potential payout: $198.28
Potential profit: $185.59
Multiplier: 15.63x
User PnL: $8.19

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $54.57
Potential payout: $108.05
Potential profit: $53.48
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: $22.8

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $3.05
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $96.95
Multiplier: 32.79x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $8.77
Potential payout: $92.27
Potential profit: $83.5
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $2.95

Yes position

Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 31.5%
Current value: $20.65
Potential payout: $65.56
Potential profit: $44.91
Multiplier: 3.17x
User PnL: -$0.27

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $38.22
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $16.78
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$1.08

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 48.7%
Current value: $21.71
Potential payout: $44.63
Potential profit: $22.92
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $12.75
Potential payout: $29.99
Potential profit: $17.24
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: -$3.75

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.07K

No position

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.89K

No position

Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $929.48

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $599.51

No position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $470

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 27?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $435.85

Yes position

Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $369.76

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.93

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $332.28

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $240.5

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $212.81

Yes position

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.2

No position

Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.65

No position

MegaETH FDV above $2B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.26

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $112.81

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.48

Yes position

Will Bulgaria be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.3

Yes position

Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $74.94

No position

Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.64

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $66

Yes position

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $63.69

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.83

Yes position

Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $46

No position

Starmer out by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.55

No position

Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.8

No position

Pharos FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.87

No position

Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.7

No position

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $22.9

Yes position

Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.11

No position

Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.74

Yes position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.7

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16.91

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 15?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.5

No position

Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $11.37

No position

Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.1

No position

Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9

Yes position

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $8

Yes position

Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $7.65

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026?

Ends Apr 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.4

Yes position

Ebola case in the US by June 30?

Implied probability: 5%
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $6

Yes position

Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.2

No position

Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?

Implied probability: 89.6%
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $3.99

No position

Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.77

Yes position

Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30?

Implied probability: 15%
Multiplier: 6.67x
User PnL: $3.47

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?