Polymarket Trader

Frosty2

0xf915728ba9dcb35ad3c909c3d6fe2d75eecf0c01

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $53.91
Realized PnL: $120.72
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $35.27
Multiplier: 80.00x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $32.56
Potential profit: $32.17
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$1.61

Yes position

Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?

Ends Jul 17, 2026

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $0.26
Potential payout: $12.5
Potential profit: $12.24
Multiplier: 47.62x
User PnL: -$0.74

No position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 21.4%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $11.96
Potential profit: $9.41
Multiplier: 4.68x
User PnL: -$7.45

Yes position

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $1.02
Potential payout: $9.18
Potential profit: $8.16
Multiplier: 9.01x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 33%
Current value: $2.54
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $5.15
Multiplier: 3.03x
User PnL: $1.54

No position

Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $5.8
Potential payout: $7.25
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on July 9?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $6.85
Potential profit: $5.21
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$3.36

Yes position

Will Morocco be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 15.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $6.62
Potential profit: $5.63
Multiplier: 6.64x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $6.46
Potential payout: $6.61
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.46

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $4.31
Potential payout: $6.48
Potential profit: $2.17
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: $0.31

Yes position

Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $6.33
Potential profit: $1.42
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 19.7%
Current value: $1.08
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $4.41
Multiplier: 5.09x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $3.97
Potential payout: $5.41
Potential profit: $1.43
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $5.15
Potential payout: $5.37
Potential profit: $0.22
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 25.8%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $3.88
Potential profit: $2.88
Multiplier: 3.88x
User PnL: -$0

No position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $2.16
Potential payout: $3.6
Potential profit: $1.44
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$0.84

Yes position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $0.97
Potential payout: $3.45
Potential profit: $2.48
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 35%
Current value: $1.19
Potential payout: $3.39
Potential profit: $2.2
Multiplier: 2.86x
User PnL: -$0.81

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $1.26
Potential payout: $3.03
Potential profit: $1.77
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $0.78
Potential payout: $2.78
Potential profit: $2
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 36%
Current value: $0.88
Potential payout: $2.44
Potential profit: $1.56
Multiplier: 2.78x
User PnL: -$0.12

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $2.06
Potential payout: $2.35
Potential profit: $0.29
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $0.06

Yes position

Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.8%
Current value: $2.11
Potential payout: $2.3
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $0.11

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Consensys IPO by September 30 2026?

Ends Oct 1, 2026

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $9.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 11?

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.07

ENCE Academy position

Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ENCE Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Group Stage

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.68

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.14

Yes position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.13

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.64

Yes position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.91

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.88

Yes position

Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 25?

Ends Mar 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.26

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 26?

Ends Feb 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Ends Feb 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on April 14?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.17

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET

Ends Apr 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on February 25?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.68

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22?

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 73°F or below on April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.55

Yes position

Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on April 12?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.22

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 17, 2026?

No 89.1% 2.61 shares
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Yes 79% 6.33 shares
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Yes 15.1% 6.62 shares
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 8?

No 46% 2.17 shares
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?

No 3.3% 29.92 shares
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?

Yes 18.2% 5.49 shares
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?

Yes 74% 5.41 shares
Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?

No 2.8% 1.25 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Up 95% 5.26 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - July 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Up 54% 1.85 shares
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

No 36% 3.22 shares
Will Smith College exclude trans women in 2026?

No 81% 1.21 shares