Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.94
- Potential payout
- $1.88K
- Potential profit
- $1.88K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$13.41
Polymarket Trader
SolaEclipse
0xf95268b3c9910617b074f23e3160be9829d8ce76
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $253.6
- Realized PnL
- $1.14K
- Win rate
- 65%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 26%
- Current value
- $186.16
- Potential payout
- $716
- Potential profit
- $529.84
- Multiplier
- 3.85x
- User PnL
- -$132.95
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $299.98
- User PnL
- -$12
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$7
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.97
- Potential profit
- $199.97
- User PnL
- -$8
Y
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $129.77
- Potential profit
- $129.77
- User PnL
- -$15.89
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 66.5%
- Current value
- $66.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $33.5
- Multiplier
- 1.50x
- User PnL
- $24.5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $99.98
- Potential profit
- $99.98
- User PnL
- -$4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $698.49
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $291.8
No position
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $138
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.67
Yes position
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.23
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.2
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.39
Yes position
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10
Y
Yes position
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.93
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 10, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.09
No position
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$11.63
Yes position
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$17.16
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Ends Jun 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
No position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- -$67.21
Yes position
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 3%
- Multiplier
- 33.33x
- User PnL
- -$140.9
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 19, 2026?Yes 11% 9.09 shares
- Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026?Yes 0.2% 2,000 shares
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 0.3% 1,229.15 shares
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026?No 76% 6.58 shares
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026?No 77.4% 3,100.24 shares
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?No 31% 86 shares
- Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?No 38.3% 2,613.84 shares
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 1.6% 650.2 shares
- Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8?Yes 99.7% 3,309.93 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?Yes 91% 1,190.62 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026?Yes 92% 101.09 shares
- Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 8, 2026?Yes 92% 54.35 shares