Yes position
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$54
Polymarket Trader
Arionmetest
0xfaaca5eceb6a187ad7d0ee490bb5e0eb6edddd3e
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $41.88
- Realized PnL
- $61.82
- Win rate
- 50%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $26.01
- Potential payout
- $28.74
- Potential profit
- $2.73
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $1.01
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-07-09?
Ends Jul 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $15.87
- Potential payout
- $15.87
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $5.87
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Liverpool wins the Premier League?
Ends May 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.96
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.88
Yes position
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.22
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.22
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.57
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET
Ends Mar 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19
Yes position
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.54
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.33
Yes position
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.19
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.07
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.04
Yes position
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.1
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after June 2025 meeting?
Ends Jun 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.11
Yes position
Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.22
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 20%
- Multiplier
- 5.01x
- User PnL
- -$0.24
Yes position
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?
Ends May 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.27
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.29
Yes position
Will a Republican win Texas in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.31
No position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 92.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- -$0.31
Yes position
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?
Ends Nov 7, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will a Democrat win Nevada Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-07-09?Yes 63% 15.87 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 87% 28.74 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?No 86.4% 11.57 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 98.4% 20.33 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?No 86% 34.88 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 18.6% 79.36 shares
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes 18.9% 79.37 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 90% 22.22 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 99.5% 15.52 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 93.8% 20.98 shares
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No 95.3% 20.99 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 96.6% 15.53 shares