Polymarket Trader

bearwin

0xfadeac30d08d0910835c6871bdfd141cef3368cf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $371.28
Realized PnL: $2.03K
Win rate: 78.3%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 23
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.34K
Potential profit: $8.34K
User PnL: -$201.65

Yes position

Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.1K
Potential profit: $4.1K
User PnL: -$243.86

Yes position

Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $2.66K
User PnL: -$95.77

No position

Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$310.88

Yes position

Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.6%
Current value: $103.1
Potential payout: $1.57K
Potential profit: $1.47K
Multiplier: 15.27x
User PnL: $77.91

Yes position

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56K
Potential profit: $1.56K
User PnL: -$218.7

Yes position

Will Coco Gauff win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.37K
Potential profit: $1.37K
User PnL: -$145.29

Yes position

Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.01
Potential payout: $1.34K
Potential profit: $1.33K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$11.45

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33K
Potential profit: $1.33K
User PnL: -$178.43

Yes position

Will the US lose jobs in January?

Ends Feb 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $1.14K
User PnL: -$73.22

Yes position

Will Abracadabra (Lady Gaga) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.08K
Potential profit: $1.08K
User PnL: -$73.11

No position

No one announced as next James Bond?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $52.92
Potential payout: $953.6
Potential profit: $900.68
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$295.45

Yes position

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $902.26
Potential profit: $902.26
User PnL: -$134.42

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Current value: $163.02
Potential payout: $836
Potential profit: $672.98
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $29.26

Yes position

Will Purdue win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $723.99
Potential profit: $723.99
User PnL: -$20.27

Yes position

Will Solana dip to $90 in January?

Ends Feb 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $704
Potential profit: $704
User PnL: -$2.11

Yes position

Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $620
Potential profit: $620
User PnL: -$124

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $514.99
Potential profit: $514.99
User PnL: -$72.1

Yes position

Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $495
Potential profit: $495
User PnL: -$56.93

Yes position

Will Freecs win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $1.18
Potential payout: $473
Potential profit: $471.82
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$3.07

Yes position

Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $468.81
Potential profit: $468.81
User PnL: -$124.31

Yes position

Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women's Australian Open?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $450
Potential profit: $450
User PnL: -$26.22

Yes position

Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $313.97
Potential profit: $313.03
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$11.39

Yes position

Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 14.9%
Current value: $44.1
Potential payout: $297
Potential profit: $252.9
Multiplier: 6.73x
User PnL: $19.49

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Minnesota Twins position

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $656.95

Yes position

Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $402.15

Yes position

Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $366.4

Up position

S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260.14

Up position

Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?

Ends Apr 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.61

No position

Will Trump visit China by March 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $154.84

No position

Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.96

Yes position

Will the Patriots win the AFC Championship?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $76.11

Yes position

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.12

No position

US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.07

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,840 on the final trading day of January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $6.52

No position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.33

No position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.74

Yes position

Will Trump meet with Satya Nadella in January 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.65

No position

Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 71%
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $0.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Ends Feb 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.07

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.25

Yes position

Will Rose Byrne win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.74

Yes position

Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$11.56

No position

Football.Fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$185.55

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

No one announced as next James Bond?

No 39% 293.67 shares
No one announced as next James Bond?

No 34% 81.01 shares
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Yes 14.2% 493 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 March 30-April 5?

Yes 26.5% 468.81 shares
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins 51% 4.93 shares
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins 50% 14 shares
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins 51% 344.86 shares
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins 51% 985.3 shares
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on April 2?

Up 13% 203 shares
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 2?

Up 14% 274 shares
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 11.5% 425.59 shares
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Yes 1.3% 927.02 shares