onekey02

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $864.09K
Potential payout: $944.36K
Potential profit: $80.27K
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $9.21K

No position

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Implied probability: 93.8%
Current value: $313.11K
Potential payout: $333.98K
Potential profit: $20.87K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $5.89K

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $159.9K
Potential payout: $176.68K
Potential profit: $16.78K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $4.8K

No position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $126.07K
Potential payout: $126.89K
Potential profit: $824.81
User PnL: $2.34K

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.6%
Current value: $105.41K
Potential payout: $112.67K
Potential profit: $7.27K
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $441.68

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $99.4K
Potential payout: $100.15K
Potential profit: $751.11
User PnL: $3.62K

No position

Trump out as President by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $89.27K
Potential payout: $89.63K
Potential profit: $358.51
User PnL: $1.98K

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $60.49K
Potential payout: $60.82K
Potential profit: $334.51
User PnL: $2.58K

No position

NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 86%
Current value: $36.19K
Potential payout: $42.08K
Potential profit: $5.89K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $3.55K

No position

Russian strike on Poland by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.8%
Current value: $32.42K
Potential payout: $32.81K
Potential profit: $393.74
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $1.03K

No position

Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $29.83K
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $165
User PnL: $645

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $28.63K
Potential payout: $30K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $2.53K

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 99.6%
Current value: $23.29K
Potential payout: $23.39K
Potential profit: $105.27
User PnL: $409.39

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 97.6%
Current value: $22.44K
Potential payout: $23K
Potential profit: $563.5
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $711.57

No position

Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $20.4K
Potential payout: $20.43K
Potential profit: $30.64
User PnL: $808.47

No position

Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $19.96K
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: $460

No position

Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $10.85K
Potential payout: $11K
Potential profit: $148.5
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $140.5

Yes position

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $9.32K
Potential payout: $10.19K
Potential profit: $865.73
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $505.9

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $8.21K
Potential payout: $8.22K
Potential profit: $4.11
User PnL: $129.88

No position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $5.61K
Potential payout: $6.13K
Potential profit: $521.08
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: -$324.51

No position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?

Implied probability: 99%
Current value: $5.94K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $63
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $129.02

No position

Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $5.13K
Potential payout: $5.2K
Potential profit: $72.8
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $176.8

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.2%
Current value: $4.91K
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $92.5
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $157.5

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 83.6%
Current value: $1.67K
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $328
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$162.5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.82K

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.11K

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by June 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.16K

No position

Will Trump Insult Xi this week?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.69K

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61K

No position

Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?

Ends May 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.6K

No position

Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.49K

Yes position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.26K

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.03K

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $861.86

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $803.05

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $795.9

Yes position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?

Ends May 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $586.23

No position

Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $474.34

Yes position

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $450.4

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $436.62

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $420.63

No position

Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $413.09

No position

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $407.4

No position

Trump out as President by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $352.27

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $350.88

No position

Iran closes its airspace by May 7?