No position
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $158.01
- Potential profit
- $158.01
- User PnL
- -$69
Polymarket Trader
0xfb18...1547
0xfb18d690611ce417f62e6aaa7da4670151b51547
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $127.95
- Realized PnL
- $38.41
- Win rate
- 78.6%
- Open positions
- 14
- Closed positions
- 14
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $92.59
- Potential profit
- $92.59
- User PnL
- -$5
No position
Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $74.95
- Potential profit
- $74.95
- User PnL
- -$14
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.5%
- Current value
- $58.18
- Potential payout
- $60.92
- Potential profit
- $2.74
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $5.18
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 20.9%
- Current value
- $11.91
- Potential payout
- $57.14
- Potential profit
- $45.23
- Multiplier
- 4.80x
- User PnL
- -$38.09
No position
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $51.17
- Potential payout
- $54.35
- Potential profit
- $3.18
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.17
No position
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.98
- Potential profit
- $49.98
- User PnL
- -$31
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $6.69
- Potential payout
- $46.15
- Potential profit
- $39.46
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $33.12
- Potential profit
- $33.12
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $20.83
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.75
- Potential profit
- $18.75
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.05
- Potential profit
- $18.05
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.38
- Potential profit
- $15.38
- User PnL
- -$4
No position
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on January 20?
Ends Jan 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.11
- Potential profit
- $8.11
- User PnL
- -$3
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 15)
Ends Feb 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.59
Yes position
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.36
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.33
No position
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.3
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.71
Yes position
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.51
No position
Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.02
Yes position
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 16%
- Multiplier
- 6.27x
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 50.4%
- Multiplier
- 1.99x
- User PnL
- -$0.29
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?
Ends Jan 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$14
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?No 86.7% 32.3 shares
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No 87.5% 57.14 shares
- Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? (February 15)No 43.9% 70.59 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 24% 20.83 shares
- Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?Yes 24% 23.8 shares
- Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 14% 71.42 shares
- Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?Yes 41% 25.64 shares
- Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?No 38% 13.16 shares
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files by March 31?No 14.6% 27.33 shares
- Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?No 51% 28.84 shares
- Will Trump visit Greenland by March 31?No 85% 6.41 shares
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes 27.7% 18.05 shares