Yes position
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.41K
- Potential profit
- $34.41K
- User PnL
- -$34.41
Polymarket Trader
Rumpelstiltskin
0xfb1b4e2db61efb47bfb1ac92807c76d4f367a11d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $2.58K
- Realized PnL
- $38.05K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.23K
- Potential profit
- $9.23K
- User PnL
- -$4.07K
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $8.22K
- Potential profit
- $8.22K
- User PnL
- -$7.56K
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 20 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.49K
- Potential profit
- $4.49K
- User PnL
- -$154.42
Yes position
Will Mistral have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.94K
- Potential profit
- $3.94K
- User PnL
- -$12.89
Yes position
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.35K
- Potential profit
- $3.35K
- User PnL
- -$437.1
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.24K
- Potential profit
- $3.24K
- User PnL
- -$9.73
No position
GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.07K
- Potential profit
- $3.07K
- User PnL
- -$313.61
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.06K
- Potential profit
- $3.06K
- User PnL
- -$9.18
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.44K
- Potential profit
- $2.44K
- User PnL
- -$2.06K
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.28K
- Potential profit
- $2.28K
- User PnL
- -$142.09
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 18%
- Current value
- $401.23
- Potential payout
- $2.23K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- Multiplier
- 5.56x
- User PnL
- $7.84
No position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $1.95K
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $49
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $831
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.95K
- Potential profit
- $1.95K
- User PnL
- -$19.83
Yes position
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?
Ends Aug 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.87K
- Potential profit
- $1.87K
- User PnL
- -$149.3
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.83K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- User PnL
- -$19.25
No position
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.58K
- Potential profit
- $1.58K
- User PnL
- -$1.2K
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.22K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- User PnL
- -$238.71
Yes position
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.19K
- Potential profit
- $1.19K
- User PnL
- -$595.54
No position
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $1.17K
- User PnL
- -$222.28
Yes position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 20%
- Current value
- $232.37
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $929.5
- Multiplier
- 5.00x
- User PnL
- -$79.45
Yes position
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.08K
- Potential profit
- $1.08K
- User PnL
- -$24.96
Yes position
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.07K
- Potential profit
- $1.07K
- User PnL
- -$143.07
Yes position
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $1K
- User PnL
- -$40
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.78K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16K
No position
Grok 5 released by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.16K
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.02K
No position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.89K
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67K
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.41K
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
Yes position
Will OpenAI release an open source model before September?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $981.08
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $970.77
No position
DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $864.23
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $846.16
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $778.01
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $731.76
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $711.62
Yes position
Will any AI model reach 1500+ on Chatbot Arena by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $670.46
No position
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $663.06
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $659.99
No position
Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $647.2
No position
Grok 5 released by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $634.77
No position
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $618.21
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of November 2025?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $611.2
No position
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $531.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Claude 4.8 released by May 31?Yes 91% 53.95 shares
- Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?Yes 86% 53.59 shares
- Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?No 28.3% 43.51 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?Yes 0.3% 3,244.97 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 5?Yes 94% 60 shares
- GPT-5.4 released by March 9?Yes 95.8% 603.81 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes 99.9% 147.13 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes 99.9% 1,690 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 15, 2026?Yes 91% 146 shares
- GPT-5.3 released by March 8, 2026?Yes 80% 690 shares
- DeepSeek V4 released by March 31?No 32.3% 343.8 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?No 17.5% 2,529.45 shares