Polymarket Trader

TheStirf

0xfb226b5d5c9c966dce71cceca1aefe6c716b9a8a

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $31.5
Realized PnL: $519.3
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3K
Potential profit: $3K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $6.24
Potential payout: $1.39K
Potential profit: $1.38K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$13.76

Yes position

Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $549.47
Potential profit: $549.47
User PnL: -$31.8

Yes position

Will Denmark be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.74
Potential profit: $285.74
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $190.49
Potential profit: $190.49
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $160.48
Potential profit: $160.48
User PnL: -$130

Yes position

Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $20.8
Potential payout: $142.95
Potential profit: $122.15
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $10.8

Yes position

Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $126.87
Potential profit: $126.87
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.11
Potential profit: $115.11
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.36
Potential profit: $76.36
User PnL: -$40

Yes position

Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55.56
Potential profit: $55.56
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $4.46
Potential payout: $35.71
Potential profit: $31.25
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.54

Yes position

Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $28.57
Potential profit: $28.57
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.63
Potential profit: $14.63
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $14.56
Potential profit: $14.56
User PnL: -$3

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.88

Yes position

Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.56

Yes position

Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.98

Yes position

Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.11

Yes position

Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: $29.89

Yes position

Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.95

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess Esports World Cup?

Ends Aug 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.44

Yes position

Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.98

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.62

Yes position

Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Ends May 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.17

No position

US/Israel strike on Fordow nuclear facility by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.12

No position

Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.04

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Chess.com Classic tournament?

Ends May 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.52

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.47

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.27

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 SuperUnited Rapid & Blitz Croatia tournament?

Ends Jul 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7

No position

Will France be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.53

Yes position

US military action against Iran before August?

Ends Jul 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3

No position

Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.62

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.46

No position

Will another country strike Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.27

No position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.15

No position

Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.03

Yes position

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.93

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?

Yes 78% 13.51 shares
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 15.4% 98.15 shares
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 15.5% 94.29 shares
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 5.2% 288.65 shares
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?

Yes 0.6% 577.44 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 5.3% 94.34 shares
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 56.4% 53.19 shares
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 30.1% 81.78 shares
Will Greece be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 35% 38.46 shares
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 6.5% 153.85 shares
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 6.4% 161.29 shares
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 31.6% 47.46 shares