Polymarket Trader

Basque

0xfb26f6f4ca742cab4e47c4d54efd960906d006f7

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.61K
Realized PnL: $409.82
Win rate: 63.6%
Open positions: 23
Closed positions: 22
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $236.19
Potential payout: $3.5K
Potential profit: $3.26K
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$17.56

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.18K
Potential profit: $3.18K
User PnL: -$3.18

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $87.69
Potential payout: $1.69K
Potential profit: $1.6K
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: $7.07

Yes position

US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.5K
Potential profit: $1.5K
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will a new MAI model be released by April 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.4K
Potential profit: $1.4K
User PnL: -$3.5

No position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $400
User PnL: -$7.91

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $354.41
Potential payout: $379.05
Potential profit: $24.64
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $37.61

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 88%
Current value: $264
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $36
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $9

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7?

Ends Jul 7, 2026

Implied probability: 32%
Current value: $96
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $204
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150
Potential profit: $150
User PnL: -$1.2

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.4%
Current value: $136.36
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $3.64
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $7.56

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $104.07
Potential payout: $110.01
Potential profit: $5.94
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $4.07

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $89.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $10.5
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $5.5

No position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $92.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $7.5
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.5

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $96.45
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $3.55
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $6.85

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $99.99
Potential profit: $99.99
User PnL: -$73

No position

Will Galatasaray win the Süper Lig?

Ends May 24, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.97
Potential profit: $76.97
User PnL: -$10

Bay Area Breakers position

MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Bay Area Breakers

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$5.53

No position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 98%
Current value: $48.98
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $1.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $8.98

Rozicki position

Zuffa Boxing 7: Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki (Cruiserweight, Main)

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $30
Potential profit: $30
User PnL: -$9

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $130.76

No position

European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.84

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $74.63

No position

Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $59.01

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.68

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.16

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.66

No position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.52

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.15

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.5

No position

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.8

No position

US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.56

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$3.15

No position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$4.5

No position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.93

No position

Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$36.07

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$131.79

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Trump declassifies new UFO files by July 7?

No 33% 300 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

No 92% 140 shares
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Yes 0.1% 3,180 shares
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

No 91% 74 shares
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

No 98.7% 218.18 shares
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?

No 82% 200 shares
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?

No 97.6% 218.18 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?

No 80% 50 shares
Zuffa Boxing 7: Billam-Smith vs. Rozicki (Cruiserweight, Main)

Rozicki 30% 30 shares
MLP St. Louis: St. Louis Shock vs Bay Area Breakers

Bay Area Breakers 7.9% 14.5 shares
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?

No 84% 100 shares
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

No 79% 130 shares