GN2

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $6.61
Potential payout: $69.59
Potential profit: $62.98
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$14.43

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $13.51
Potential payout: $47.43
Potential profit: $33.92
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$1.45

Yes position

Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $13.63
Potential payout: $25.01
Potential profit: $11.38
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: $2.04

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Ends Jun 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.74
Potential profit: $17.74
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $1.9
Potential payout: $15.24
Potential profit: $13.33
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$2.94

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $9.18
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $1.22

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?

Implied probability: 60.1%
Current value: $7.31
Potential payout: $12.17
Potential profit: $4.86
Multiplier: 1.66x
User PnL: -$2.67

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 98.7%
Current value: $11.47
Potential payout: $11.63
Potential profit: $0.16
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 80%
Current value: $9.03
Potential payout: $11.29
Potential profit: $2.26
Multiplier: 1.25x
User PnL: $3.26

Yes position

Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 18%
Current value: $2.02
Potential payout: $11.24
Potential profit: $9.22
Multiplier: 5.57x
User PnL: -$2.76

No position

Netanyahu out by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $10.32
Potential payout: $10.34
Potential profit: $0.03
User PnL: $1.1

No position

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $9.72
Potential payout: $9.87
Potential profit: $0.15
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $3.7

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $9.36
Potential profit: $9.34
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.89
Potential profit: $8.89
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $7.02
Potential payout: $7.76
Potential profit: $0.74
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.82

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Current value: $7.42
Potential payout: $7.62
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $0.26

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $6.28
Potential payout: $7.22
Potential profit: $0.94
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $0.29

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?

Implied probability: 79.5%
Current value: $5.4
Potential payout: $6.8
Potential profit: $1.39
Multiplier: 1.26x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $6.3
Potential payout: $6.66
Potential profit: $0.36
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.31
Potential profit: $6.31
User PnL: -$5.05

No position

Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $6.17
Potential profit: $0.4
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: -$0.09

No position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.11
Potential profit: $6.11
User PnL: -$3.1

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $6.03
Potential profit: $1.05
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.57

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 82.6%
Current value: $4.57
Potential payout: $5.53
Potential profit: $0.97
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: -$0.87

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $139.57

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.24

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.14

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $79.45

Yes position

Will SS Lazio win on 2026-03-22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $73.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $68.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.89

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $58.92

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.8

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET

Ends Mar 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.1

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET

Ends Mar 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.81

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.03

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET