Polymarket Trader

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0xfbce50ee50e56c5a82fb923a498d6cdd43f730be

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $2.99K
Realized PnL: $9.02K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $17.9
Potential payout: $5.97K
Potential profit: $5.95K
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$982.09

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.97K
Potential profit: $1.97K
User PnL: -$1.2K

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.78K
Potential profit: $1.78K
User PnL: -$782.05

Yes position

Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $124.83
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $1.46K
Multiplier: 12.66x
User PnL: -$375.43

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.17K
User PnL: -$200

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $1.14K
Potential payout: $1.14K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $138.1

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $978.87
Potential payout: $978.87
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $378.87

Yes position

US recession in 2025?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $790.37
Potential profit: $790.37
User PnL: -$300

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $625
Potential payout: $625
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $225

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $2.57
Potential payout: $571.43
Potential profit: $568.86
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$197.43

Yes position

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $30.28
Potential payout: $465.91
Potential profit: $435.63
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$69.72

Yes position

NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Current value: $74.71
Potential payout: $426.93
Potential profit: $352.21
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: -$25.29

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $337.97
Potential profit: $337.97
User PnL: -$266.33

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $312.5
Potential profit: $312.5
User PnL: -$100

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.77K

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.5K

No position

Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $955.66

Yes position

US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $739.73

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $589.84

Yes position

US military action against Iran before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $478.72

Yes position

300+ Measles cases in U.S. before April?

Ends Mar 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $347.38

No position

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $302.53

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $298.4

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.05

Yes position

700+ Measles cases in U.S. before May?

Ends Apr 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $234.68

Yes position

Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $208.89

No position

Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $176.47

Yes position

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $147.13

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.19

No position

Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.1

Yes position

Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $136.36

No position

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.69

Yes position

Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $88.18

No position

Bayrou out as French PM in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $88.12

Yes position

Will U.S. National debt surpass $38 trillion in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.39

Yes position

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.51

Yes position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.59

Yes position

Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $70.01

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 29.3% 7,355.93 shares
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Yes 92% 444.44 shares
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?

Yes 45% 444.44 shares
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

No 69.6% 1,448.63 shares
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Yes 32% 312.5 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 61.7% 6,478.74 shares
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Yes 99.6% 4,320.48 shares
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?

No 43.9% 1,781.22 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Yes 57% 877.19 shares
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Yes 68% 2,941.18 shares
US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Yes 58% 1,379.31 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

No 64% 625 shares