0xfBd7c5996cC7EecB997c8934dF7Aa440333C7a69-1772657160306

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $500
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $438.68
Potential profit: $438.68
User PnL: -$25

No position

Will Trump visit China by May 15?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$30

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $215.32
Potential profit: $215.32
User PnL: -$49.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $128.29
Potential profit: $128.29
User PnL: -$30

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$0.6

Yes position

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $92.67
Potential profit: $92.67
User PnL: -$40

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $91.38
Potential profit: $91.38
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $88.21
Potential profit: $88.21
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will "Crazy" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast?

Ends May 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $82.35
Potential profit: $82.35
User PnL: -$2

Up position

XRP Up or Down - May 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $73.47
Potential profit: $73.47
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 99.7%
Current value: $48.61
Potential payout: $48.78
Potential profit: $0.17
User PnL: $28.31

No position

Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44.67
Potential profit: $44.67
User PnL: -$20

Up position

Solana Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.46
Potential profit: $42.46
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $31.08
Potential profit: $31.03
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $25.96
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.52

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $25.9
Multiplier: 250.00x
User PnL: -$3.54

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $13
Potential profit: $12.98
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$3.04

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $11
Potential profit: $10.98
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$1.99

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.17

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $138.68

Yes position

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.17

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $56.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $44.55

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.48

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $43.42

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.62

Yes position

Will Google (GOOGL) close above $295 on March 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34.4

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.99

Yes position

Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $30.76

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.75

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.17

No position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.65

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.86

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.76

Yes position

Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET