No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $297.26K
- Potential profit
- $297.26K
- User PnL
- -$98.78K
Polymarket Trader
gaven-willwin
0xfbe66593e49c4e7a7180a2582f041158bfb800f8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $11.85K
- Realized PnL
- -$36.64K
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
Ends Sep 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 56.5%
- Current value
- $11.85K
- Potential payout
- $20.98K
- Potential profit
- $9.13K
- Multiplier
- 1.77x
- User PnL
- -$3.83K
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $258.93
- Potential profit
- $258.93
- User PnL
- -$210.56
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.19K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.74K
Yes position
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.12K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.54K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.8K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.43K
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.9K
Yes position
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
No position
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2K
No position
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $993.61
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $913.87
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $619.75
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $390.15
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
Ends May 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $327.01
Yes position
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $99.89
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.02
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.56
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$402.19
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$489.25
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$662.5
Switzerland position
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5)
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.88K
Yes position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.06K
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100.34K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 3.7% 1,184.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 3.6% 27,138.21 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 2.1% 15,800.66 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Yes 71.3% 380 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 21.8% 6,500 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 21.8% 1,973.36 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.6% 21,828 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 20.9% 90,132.15 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.7% 5,941.51 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 22.9% 9,364.75 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 23.1% 1,255.02 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 18.8% 10 shares