No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $98.35
- Potential payout
- $104.07
- Potential profit
- $5.72
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $48.35
Polymarket Trader
blackgumn
0xfc367c44302032ea40117f0925be2836d6d1d08d
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $229.79
- Realized PnL
- $236.9
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 17
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.6%
- Current value
- $19.02
- Potential payout
- $77.49
- Potential profit
- $58.47
- Multiplier
- 4.07x
- User PnL
- -$0.98
Yes position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Current value
- $7.53
- Potential payout
- $65.45
- Potential profit
- $57.93
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- -$17.47
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 26.5%
- Current value
- $13.95
- Potential payout
- $52.63
- Potential profit
- $38.68
- Multiplier
- 3.77x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $40.65
- Potential profit
- $40.18
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$4.53
Yes position
Will Mohamed Salah play in Serie A next?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 36.7%
- Current value
- $12.22
- Potential payout
- $33.33
- Potential profit
- $21.12
- Multiplier
- 2.73x
- User PnL
- $7.22
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $32.7
- Potential payout
- $32.79
- Potential profit
- $0.08
- User PnL
- $12.7
Yes position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Current value
- $10.88
- Potential payout
- $31.1
- Potential profit
- $20.21
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- $5.88
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.73
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.8%
- Current value
- $1.41
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $19.43
- Multiplier
- 14.81x
- User PnL
- -$3.59
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $17.29
- Potential payout
- $19.11
- Potential profit
- $1.82
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $6.77
No position
Will Mohamed Salah play in Saudi Pro League next?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 60%
- Current value
- $10.82
- Potential payout
- $18.03
- Potential profit
- $7.21
- Multiplier
- 1.67x
- User PnL
- $5.82
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.41
- Potential profit
- $17.41
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $1.38
- Potential payout
- $16.22
- Potential profit
- $14.84
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$4.62
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $3.77
- Potential payout
- $8.77
- Potential profit
- $5
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.23
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $55.59
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.68
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $22.86
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $17.09
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.67
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.68
G2 Esports position
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.41
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.81
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.2
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.71
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $8.79
No position
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.36
Yes position
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.34
Yes position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.43
Yes position
Will Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw?
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.98
No position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.08
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19
Yes position
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08?
Ends Jan 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$2.5
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$4.98
Yes position
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17?
Ends Mar 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
G2 Esports position
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Ends Mar 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Yes 25.8% 77.49 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?No 98.3% 37.73 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 26.6% 52.63 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 39% 25.64 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 51% 78.43 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?No 42% 23.81 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 4.4% 185.16 shares
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?Yes 12.3% 40.65 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 24.5% 40.82 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 47.6% 42.02 shares
- Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 24.4% 102.33 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 75% 57.14 shares