No position
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
Ends Nov 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $122.26
- Potential payout
- $135.09
- Potential profit
- $12.83
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $22.26
Polymarket Trader
gh0stwriter123
0xfc44c2cf31d30f822950978e88af0fb9aad31997
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $206.49
- Realized PnL
- $144.71
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $28.17
- Potential payout
- $43.68
- Potential profit
- $15.51
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $2.17
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $32.22
- Potential profit
- $32.22
- User PnL
- -$6.98
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.23
- Potential profit
- $30.23
- User PnL
- -$15
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?
Ends Jun 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22.73
- Potential profit
- $22.73
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$4.8
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.4%
- Current value
- $1.03
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $18.2
- Multiplier
- 18.69x
- User PnL
- $0.03
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $18.06
- Potential profit
- $18.06
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17.6
- Potential profit
- $17.6
- User PnL
- -$6.71
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 93%
- Current value
- $12.99
- Potential payout
- $13.96
- Potential profit
- $0.98
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.99
Yes position
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Ends Jun 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $13.63
- Potential payout
- $13.79
- Potential profit
- $0.16
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $3.63
Yes position
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 57.5%
- Current value
- $7.67
- Potential payout
- $13.33
- Potential profit
- $5.67
- Multiplier
- 1.74x
- User PnL
- -$0.33
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 83.3%
- Current value
- $10.08
- Potential payout
- $12.1
- Potential profit
- $2.02
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $1.86
- Potential payout
- $12.05
- Potential profit
- $10.19
- Multiplier
- 6.47x
- User PnL
- $0.86
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.81
- Potential profit
- $11.81
- User PnL
- -$5
Y
Yes position
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $11.49
- Potential profit
- $11.03
- Multiplier
- 25.00x
- User PnL
- -$9.54
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.6%
- Current value
- $0.86
- Potential payout
- $11.36
- Potential profit
- $10.51
- Multiplier
- 13.25x
- User PnL
- -$0.14
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10.37
- Potential profit
- $10.37
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$2
Yes position
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$3.8
Yes position
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.89
- Potential profit
- $7.89
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 14?
Ends May 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7.44
- Potential profit
- $7.44
- User PnL
- -$3
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.2%
- Current value
- $6.69
- Potential payout
- $6.82
- Potential profit
- $0.13
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $0.69
Yes position
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.9%
- Current value
- $0.79
- Potential payout
- $5.71
- Potential profit
- $4.92
- Multiplier
- 7.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.21
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4?
Ends May 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.89
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on May 5?
Ends May 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.16
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 6?
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.64
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on May 7?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.62
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3?
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.91
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.75
Yes position
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.27
Under position
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.87
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on May 28?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.96
Juan Manuel Cerundolo position
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Ends Jun 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.15
Yes position
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-02?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.94
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on May 1?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
Ends May 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51
No position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.39
Yes position
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.35
Under position
Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 3.5
Ends May 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.03
No position
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C on May 2?
Ends May 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.98
Yes position
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.50B?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.75
No position
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.64
Yes position
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score
Ends May 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.63
Yes position
Will Take-Two Q4 net bookings be above $1.55B?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.56
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.41
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5Over 42.4% 2.36 shares
- England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5Over 42.7% 4.68 shares
- England vs. Croatia: England O/U 2.5Over 67% 4.48 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 60% 1.67 shares
- England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5Under 87% 1.15 shares
- Will England win on 2026-06-17?Yes 78% 1.28 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 81% 2.47 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 87% 11.49 shares
- Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?No 13% 3.84 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?Yes 55% 1.82 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 99.5% 3.02 shares
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Yes 72% 1.39 shares