No position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.55K
- Potential profit
- $2.55K
- User PnL
- -$5.1
Polymarket Trader
Dft12
0xfc5e982a3370454d8a11dc52a30de526fadbde7a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $57.01
- Realized PnL
- $111.84
- Win rate
- 39.1%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 23
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.89K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- User PnL
- -$11.34
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?
Ends May 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.42K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- User PnL
- -$2.84
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?
Ends May 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $1.01K
- User PnL
- -$1.01
Yes position
Will Trump attend his son's wedding?
Ends May 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $999.97
- Potential profit
- $999.97
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $830
- Potential profit
- $830
- User PnL
- -$6.64
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $611
- Potential profit
- $611
- User PnL
- -$7.94
Yes position
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $480
- Potential profit
- $480
- User PnL
- -$10.08
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C or below on May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $399.95
- Potential profit
- $399.95
- User PnL
- -$3.2
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $305
- Potential profit
- $305
- User PnL
- -$15.25
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$27.7
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $240
- User PnL
- -$16.8
Yes position
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.12
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $229.89
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$4.94
Yes position
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.9%
- Current value
- $52.29
- Potential payout
- $210
- Potential profit
- $157.71
- Multiplier
- 4.02x
- User PnL
- $41.79
Yes position
Will JD Vance visit Pakistan by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$6.6
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 20?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $191.02
- Potential profit
- $191.02
- User PnL
- -$6.67
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $140
- Potential profit
- $140
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $3.97
- Potential payout
- $130
- Potential profit
- $126.04
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $120
- User PnL
- -$21.6
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111
- Potential profit
- $111
- User PnL
- -$8.88
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $110
- Potential profit
- $110
- User PnL
- -$4.73
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$4.7
Yes position
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $80
- User PnL
- -$20.8
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $79.36
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$6.16
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $80.34
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.28
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $38.3
No position
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $33.1
Yes position
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.88
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.89
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.19
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.29
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.15
No position
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
No position
Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on April 3, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$0.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.1
Yes position
Will Backpack launch a token on March 24?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$1.17
Yes position
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$6.15
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$7.99
No position
Will Trump say "Waste" this week? (March 1)
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8
No position
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.1
Yes position
Will "Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office be between 22m and 25m?
Ends Mar 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$8.25
No position
Will Backpack launch a token on March 23?
Ends Apr 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$12.54
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$13.8
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 10?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.5
Yes position
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 7?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.48
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?Yes 1.3% 611 shares
- Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Yes 31% 53.99 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17?Yes 0.1% 18.95 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 17?No 0.2% 2,550 shares
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Yes 7% 240 shares
- Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?No 58.1% 34.42 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes 53% 9.99 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?Yes 34% 9.99 shares
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?No 99.4% 10 shares
- Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Yes 17% 29.9 shares
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 12, 2026?Yes 8% 111 shares
- Will Backpack launch a token on March 23?No 2.8% 392.78 shares