Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $108.53
- Potential payout
- $18.09K
- Potential profit
- $17.98K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$766.85
Polymarket Trader
smartrandom
0xfc75f7bf7d158ffd32b6133b31705ebe41328604
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.21K
- Realized PnL
- $432.09
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 23
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $904.64
- Potential payout
- $6.24K
- Potential profit
- $5.33K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$350.86
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $5.49K
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $510
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $190.05
No position
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- Current value
- $5.8K
- Potential payout
- $5.84K
- Potential profit
- $32.1
- User PnL
- $131.31
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.1%
- Current value
- $2.94K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $58.5
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $62.51
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $289.97
- Potential payout
- $999.9
- Potential profit
- $709.93
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$59.99
No position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $899.98
- Potential profit
- $899.98
- User PnL
- -$278.99
Yes position
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $3.1
- Potential payout
- $775
- Potential profit
- $771.9
- Multiplier
- 250.00x
- User PnL
- -$41.08
Yes position
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $576.9
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $23.1
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $465
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $135
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $399.18
- Potential payout
- $436.27
- Potential profit
- $37.08
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $13.47
No position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $435.92
- Potential profit
- $435.92
- User PnL
- -$137.13
Yes position
Will Finland be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$276
Yes position
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $200
- User PnL
- -$196.2
No position
Will United Russia (ER) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $97.9
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $2.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $2.2
Yes position
Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.46
- Potential payout
- $91.1
- Potential profit
- $90.64
- Multiplier
- 200.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.55
Yes position
Russian strike on Poland by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $1.19
- Potential payout
- $82.39
- Potential profit
- $81.19
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$2.76
No position
Will Bill Gates be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $71.13
- Potential payout
- $72.03
- Potential profit
- $0.9
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $4.86
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 29.5%
- Current value
- $14.75
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $35.25
- Multiplier
- 3.39x
- User PnL
- -$4.75
No position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$19.4
No position
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $37.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $12.75
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$1.25
Yes position
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?
Ends May 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.9
- Potential profit
- $29.9
- User PnL
- -$12.98
No position
Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $7.08
- Potential payout
- $10.05
- Potential profit
- $2.96
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.77
No position
Will Mother's Milk die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.93
No position
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?
Ends Apr 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.8
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before US x Iran ceasefire?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26
No position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25.2
No position
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $21.9
No position
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $18.8
No position
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.77
No position
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $15.26
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.8
No position
Will Malta be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.7
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.4
Yes position
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.2
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.02
No position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.73
No position
Will Serbia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.4
No position
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.2
No position
Will Albania be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.4
No position
Will Trump Mobile release a phone by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
No position
Will Iran strike Pakistan by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.11
No position
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $1.80 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.09
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.02
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.8
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the June Meeting?No 99.8% 2,095.15 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 2.4% 407.04 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 2.4% 9,682.66 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 97% 1,600 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?No 93% 36.8 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.7% 174.52 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 3.6% 728.46 shares
- NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Yes 5.4% 114.89 shares
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 99.7% 100 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?No 99.1% 50 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by May 31?No 97.8% 12.97 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?No 98.6% 50 shares