0x5eeFB5ccB4e5e822Fd420611e8779C90263FAA2E-1772378119047

Implied probability: 81%
Current value: $7.42K
Potential payout: $9.17K
Potential profit: $1.75K
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: $2.42K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $4.77K
Potential payout: $5.45K
Potential profit: $681.8
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $851.09

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $694.74
Potential payout: $4.21K
Potential profit: $3.52K
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$102.53

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $61.67
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.27K
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$23.67

Yes position

Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $56.67
Potential payout: $3.33K
Potential profit: $3.28K
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$443.27

No position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $2.32K
Potential payout: $2.66K
Potential profit: $346.26
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $347.29

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $1.42K
Potential payout: $2.55K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $217.02

No position

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $1.19K
Potential payout: $2.51K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: -$223.05

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $2.21K
Potential payout: $2.44K
Potential profit: $231.98
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $109.88

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $318.19
Potential payout: $2.36K
Potential profit: $2.04K
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$376.05

Yes position

Fed rate hike in 2026?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 52%
Current value: $1.18K
Potential payout: $2.27K
Potential profit: $1.09K
Multiplier: 1.92x
User PnL: $371.64

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $310.15
Potential payout: $2.26K
Potential profit: $1.95K
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $10.15

No position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.68K
Potential payout: $2.02K
Potential profit: $332.91
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: -$30.26

Yes position

Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 7.9%
Current value: $153.92
Potential payout: $1.96K
Potential profit: $1.81K
Multiplier: 12.74x
User PnL: -$46.08

Yes position

Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 12.9%
Current value: $244.76
Potential payout: $1.9K
Potential profit: $1.66K
Multiplier: 7.78x
User PnL: $44.76

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 11.6%
Current value: $217.92
Potential payout: $1.89K
Potential profit: $1.67K
Multiplier: 8.66x
User PnL: $17.92

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $1.5K
Potential payout: $1.79K
Potential profit: $295.52
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $310.15

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $181.03
Potential payout: $1.72K
Potential profit: $1.54K
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$78.11

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $299.19
Potential payout: $1.62K
Potential profit: $1.32K
Multiplier: 5.42x
User PnL: -$0.81

Yes position

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $59.66
Potential payout: $1.59K
Potential profit: $1.53K
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$290.34

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $49.37
Potential payout: $1.27K
Potential profit: $1.22K
Multiplier: 25.64x
User PnL: -$48.78

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Implied probability: 94.9%
Current value: $1.05K
Potential payout: $1.11K
Potential profit: $57.22
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $266.42

No position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 53.5%
Current value: $453.39
Potential payout: $847.46
Potential profit: $394.07
Multiplier: 1.87x
User PnL: -$43.84

No position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 78.7%
Current value: $590.61
Potential payout: $750.94
Potential profit: $160.33
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: -$9.37

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 77.5%
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $1.72K

Yes position

Iran closes its airspace by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $819.49

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $799.9

Yes position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $611.11

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $548.38

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $469.14

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $442.26

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: $409.76

No position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $318.41

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $263.48

Yes position

Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $99.1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.09

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.2

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.46

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.7%
User PnL: $31.06

Yes position

Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.34

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25

No position

Will Netanyahu visit NYC by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.21

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.37

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 93.6%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $20.78

No position

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Implied probability: 94.2%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $20.39

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?