Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $938.41
- Potential payout
- $6.47K
- Potential profit
- $5.53K
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$2.6K
Polymarket Trader
Soya-destroya
0xfce2586351cf3ace7add35d641ae5b9cf07baa18
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.18K
- Realized PnL
- $1.63K
- Win rate
- 91.7%
- Open positions
- 19
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.12K
- User PnL
- -$308.79
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $730.43
- Potential profit
- $730.43
- User PnL
- -$126
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Current value
- $66.37
- Potential payout
- $428.17
- Potential profit
- $361.8
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- -$113.63
Yes position
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $400
- Potential profit
- $400
- User PnL
- -$116
Yes position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.4%
- Current value
- $1.62
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $118.38
- Multiplier
- 74.07x
- User PnL
- -$38.98
Yes position
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.8%
- Current value
- $102.22
- Potential payout
- $113.9
- Potential profit
- $11.67
- Multiplier
- 1.11x
- User PnL
- $2.22
Yes position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $111.11
- Potential profit
- $111.11
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$53
Yes position
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $5.01
- Potential payout
- $91.14
- Potential profit
- $86.12
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4.99
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Current value
- $20.42
- Potential payout
- $54.45
- Potential profit
- $34.03
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- -$4.08
Yes position
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
Ends Jan 20, 2029- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $33.59
- Potential payout
- $52.08
- Potential profit
- $18.49
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- -$1.3
Yes position
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$17.2
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.71
- Potential profit
- $29.71
- User PnL
- -$22.58
Yes position
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.3%
- Current value
- $14.26
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $5.74
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $4.46
Yes position
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $19.23
- Potential profit
- $19.23
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $16.39
- Potential profit
- $16.39
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12.99
- Potential profit
- $12.99
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.79
- Potential profit
- $9.79
- User PnL
- -$4.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $848.04
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $238.5
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $185.64
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $62.35
Yes position
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $58.4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $40.91
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $34.48
Yes position
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.78
Yes position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.5%
- Multiplier
- 8.70x
- User PnL
- $13.33
Yes position
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.33
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.85
Yes position
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7
Yes position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.63
Yes position
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.86
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 7?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.67
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.56
Yes position
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Ends Mar 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.88
Yes position
Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?
Ends Apr 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.18
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?
Ends Apr 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 87.8% 113.9 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Yes 70% 142.86 shares
- Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX?Yes 0.1% 500 shares
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?Yes 0.1% 19.4 shares
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?Yes 0.1% 5.66 shares
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during April press conference?Yes 80% 5.66 shares
- Will Powell say "Good Afternoon" during April press conference?Yes 98.2% 10.18 shares
- Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during April press conference?Yes 77% 12.99 shares
- Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?Yes 26% 19.23 shares
- Will Powell say "Successor" during April press conference?Yes 61% 16.39 shares
- Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during April press conference?Yes 51.5% 19.41 shares
- Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Yes 0.4% 40 shares