No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 46.5%
- Current value
- $481.76
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $554.28
- Multiplier
- 2.15x
- User PnL
- -$6.12
Polymarket Trader
0xfd022428Bbc38a5280094C3734fef09Cefe7fb6A-1740768609191
0xfd022428bbc38a5280094c3734fef09cefe7fb6a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $974.87
- Realized PnL
- $430.12
- Win rate
- 70.8%
- Open positions
- 6
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $38
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $962
- Multiplier
- 26.32x
- User PnL
- -$50
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 71.5%
- Current value
- $350.41
- Potential payout
- $490.08
- Potential profit
- $139.67
- Multiplier
- 1.40x
- User PnL
- $74.41
Yes position
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $70.96
- Potential payout
- $71
- Potential profit
- $0.04
- User PnL
- $36.88
Yes position
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 20.5%
- Current value
- $10.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $39.75
- Multiplier
- 4.88x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
Yes position
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jun 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 76.5%
- Current value
- $23.49
- Potential payout
- $30.7
- Potential profit
- $7.22
- Multiplier
- 1.31x
- User PnL
- $1.69
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.36
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $73.4
Yes position
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.4
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $42.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.2
Yes position
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $31.61
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will TISZA win 50-54% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $19.77
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- $17.51
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.28
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $13.58
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.08
Yes position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 15.5%
- Multiplier
- 6.45x
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Multiplier
- 19.05x
- User PnL
- -$0.52
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- -$5.98
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$28.69
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$31.09
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$44.31
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 45% 418.11 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 62% 141.94 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 54% 348.15 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 37% 294.27 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11% 574.91 shares
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Yes 0.8% 1,581.98 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 2.1% 250.7 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No 11% 552.36 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 67% 104.69 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?No 64% 100.57 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?No 22% 208.66 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 81% 108.64 shares