No position
Will Rhun ap Iorwerth be the next First Minister of Wales following the 2026 Welsh parliamentary elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $122.98
- Potential profit
- $122.98
- User PnL
- -$11.05
Polymarket Trader
Elles
0xfd1c69b30fee30a5ec7b2ee49cd038fff8534c80
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $154.6
- Realized PnL
- $316.84
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $1.02
- Potential payout
- $120
- Potential profit
- $118.98
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.75
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $99.25
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
No position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$25
No position
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $83.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $16.5
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $1.15
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $98.85
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.05
Yes position
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.89
- Potential payout
- $85
- Potential profit
- $84.11
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.8%
- Current value
- $54.44
- Potential payout
- $55.1
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $25.07
Yes position
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $1.73
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $48.28
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- $1.18
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $3.25
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $46.75
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
Yes position
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.33
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.68
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.08
Yes position
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$1.95
Yes position
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$2.75
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$11
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $41.67
- Potential profit
- $41.67
- User PnL
- -$4
Yes position
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $40.99
- Potential profit
- $40.69
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- $0.13
Yes position
Will Welsh Labour win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.88
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $23.13
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$1.23
Yes position
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.27
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $22.99
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$0.73
Yes position
Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.6%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $21
- Multiplier
- 21.98x
- User PnL
- -$0.01
Yes position
Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.3%
- Current value
- $1.11
- Potential payout
- $21
- Potential profit
- $19.89
- Multiplier
- 18.87x
- User PnL
- $0.08
Yes position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.61
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$0.15
Yes position
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $1.1
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.9
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$6.7
Yes position
New pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $1.5
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.5
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.7
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.11
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.99
Yes position
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.97
Yes position
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.74
No position
Prince Andrew charged by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $16.92
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10.18
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.13
Tigers position
Royals vs. Tigers
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.9
No position
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.14
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.7
Yes position
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2025-08-24?
Ends Aug 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Another Houthi strike on Israel by September 15?
Ends Sep 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.97
No position
Will iPhone 17 cost more than iPhone 16?
Ends Sep 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2
No position
Will Trump say “Slopadopolous” by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.75
No position
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6
Yes position
Israeli troops enter Damascus by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.55
Yes position
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $1.4
No position
Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.36
Braves position
Mets vs. Braves
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.22
No position
Bitcoin above $115K on August 24 at 4PM ET?
Ends Aug 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.94
Yes position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.85
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?Yes 9% 8.7 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Yes 15% 10 shares
- Labour leadership election scheduled by June 30?Yes 61% 5 shares
- Labour leadership election scheduled by July 31?Yes 88% 5 shares
- Sundar Pichai out as Google CEO before 2027?Yes 4.9% 21 shares
- Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?Yes 4.6% 22 shares
- Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?Yes 9% 3.88 shares
- Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?No 88% 15.48 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Yes 1.3% 20 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Yes 4.8% 32.2 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?Yes 53.3% 55.1 shares
- Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?No 74.3% 20 shares