Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 500B and 600B?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.7%
- Current value
- $4.98
- Potential payout
- $184.42
- Potential profit
- $179.44
- Multiplier
- 37.04x
- User PnL
- $0.42
Polymarket Trader
alidf
0xfde38c3e0cf69179ae100832434d14bf6e95c59b
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $52.8
- Realized PnL
- $300.83
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be less than 500B?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $7.01
- Potential payout
- $155.75
- Potential profit
- $148.74
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$1.66
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be 1.1T or more?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $2.35
- Potential payout
- $146.8
- Potential profit
- $144.45
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$4.96
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 1T and 1.1T?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 4.1%
- Current value
- $5.75
- Potential payout
- $141.94
- Potential profit
- $136.19
- Multiplier
- 24.69x
- User PnL
- -$1.57
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 600B and 700B?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.2%
- Current value
- $11.31
- Potential payout
- $111.02
- Potential profit
- $99.71
- Multiplier
- 9.81x
- User PnL
- $5.96
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 700B and 800B?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $19.91
- Potential payout
- $104.79
- Potential profit
- $84.88
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $14.6
Yes position
Will a player representing Scotland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Aug 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.2
Yes position
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.9%
- Current value
- $1.48
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $8.52
- Multiplier
- 6.73x
- User PnL
- $0.58
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.85
Yes position
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $40.6
Yes position
Will Trump tweet 10-19 times this week?
Ends Sep 13, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $37.88
Yes position
No Opensea token launch by July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.34
Yes position
Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2024?
Ends Dec 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.6
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 15%
- Multiplier
- 6.67x
- User PnL
- $18.9
Yes position
Will Berachain's FDV be $3-5b 1 day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.76
Yes position
Will $Trump FDV be $20-25b on Feb 1?
Ends Feb 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.5
Yes position
Will the S&P 500 (SPX) close at 6900–7000 on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.15
No position
Will Pengu flip Shiba Inu by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.5
No position
Will Biden issue more pardons than Trump?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.55
No position
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?
Ends Jan 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.39
Yes position
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.98
Yes position
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m subscribers during his subathon?
Ends Nov 30, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in October?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.45
Down position
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 26?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.55
No position
Will the Republican candidate win Wisconsin by 0%-1.0%?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.47
Yes position
Will Everton win on 2024-12-26?
Ends Dec 26, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.45
Yes position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today?
Ends Nov 22, 2024- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.36
Yes position
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
Ends Dec 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.12
Yes position
Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?
Ends Feb 28, 2027- Implied probability
- 37.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.67x
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will Jamie Dimon be a member of the Trump administration?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.01
Yes position
Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.97
No position
Will Trump formally nominate RFK Jr. to the cabinet?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?Down 10% 10 shares
- S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 23?Down 10% 41 shares
- Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 800B and 900B?Yes 28% 10 shares
- Will the 2026 trade deficit be between 900B and 1T?Yes 27% 76 shares
- Will the Individual taxation referendum be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March 2026 popular vote?No 0.9% 41.22 shares
- Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes 3.6% 200 shares
- Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes 5.6% 200 shares
- Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?Yes 21.4% 50.24 shares
- Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes 3.9% 45 shares
- Will Iran claim responsibility for Oslo Embassy attack?Yes 4% 59.87 shares
- Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27?Yes 2% 170 shares
- Will ZachXBT release his investigation on February 27?Yes 2.1% 127.68 shares