Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $675.05
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.33K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$76.53
Polymarket Trader
0x6224d0ca562475644c59eb387d122aff
0xfe726a6efb705a7e17f8200919b1f05a8a17f18c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $5.5K
- Realized PnL
- $17.04K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 7
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69%
- Current value
- $2.62K
- Potential payout
- $3.79K
- Potential profit
- $1.18K
- Multiplier
- 1.45x
- User PnL
- $934.49
Yes position
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $7.51
- Potential payout
- $1.67K
- Potential profit
- $1.66K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- $0.83
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $1.32K
- Potential payout
- $1.6K
- Potential profit
- $280.06
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $318.46
Yes position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $123.75
- Potential payout
- $750
- Potential profit
- $626.25
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- $11.25
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $594.83
- Potential payout
- $650.09
- Potential profit
- $55.26
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $81
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.5%
- Current value
- $159.25
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $490.75
- Multiplier
- 4.08x
- User PnL
- -$94
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.13K
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.09K
Yes position
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.04K
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 13?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $979.73
Yes position
Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $910.07
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $791.36
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 12?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $769.05
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $767.95
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $666.08
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $656.29
Yes position
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $645.46
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $596.75
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $591.42
Yes position
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $590.6
Yes position
US government shutdown Saturday?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $575.2
Yes position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $559.14
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $551.95
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $544.43
No position
Will Iran strike Oman in March?
Ends Mar 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $466.99
No position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $465.84
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $456.92
No position
Iran leadership change by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $429.18
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 36%
- Multiplier
- 2.78x
- User PnL
- $387.53
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $387.19
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Yes 15% 750 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 25% 50 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Yes 75% 44.07 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes 14% 249.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 41% 3.31 shares
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Yes 15% 500 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?Yes 84% 23.53 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 43% 113.72 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?No 23% 8.02 shares
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 80% 75 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 71.1% 100 shares
- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Yes 27.9% 80 shares