Yes position
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $255.56
- Potential profit
- $255.56
- User PnL
- -$2
Polymarket Trader
Reliccce
0xfeb7d72c6f1ba1e8c39aede9de6a39840679d12c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $47
- Realized PnL
- $198.28
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.09
- Potential payout
- $174.24
- Potential profit
- $174.16
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.91
Yes position
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.21
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.86
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?
Ends Jun 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.62
- Potential payout
- $94.83
- Potential profit
- $94.21
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$1.41
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $83.33
- Potential profit
- $83.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 12.2%
- Current value
- $9.24
- Potential payout
- $76.06
- Potential profit
- $66.82
- Multiplier
- 8.23x
- User PnL
- -$3.44
No position
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $59.28
- Potential profit
- $59.28
- User PnL
- -$4.25
Yes position
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33.5%
- Current value
- $17.31
- Potential payout
- $51.67
- Potential profit
- $34.36
- Multiplier
- 2.99x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40.31
- Potential profit
- $40.31
- User PnL
- -$8.6
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $0.21
- Potential payout
- $37.67
- Potential profit
- $37.46
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- -$2.46
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $1.58
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $33.43
- Multiplier
- 22.22x
- User PnL
- -$3.02
No position
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.2%
- Current value
- $1.45
- Potential payout
- $35
- Potential profit
- $33.55
- Multiplier
- 24.10x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
No position
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.84
- Potential profit
- $34.84
- User PnL
- -$1.08
Yes position
Will Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
Ends Jan 25, 2027- Implied probability
- 13%
- Current value
- $4.5
- Potential payout
- $34.65
- Potential profit
- $30.14
- Multiplier
- 7.69x
- User PnL
- -$0.61
Yes position
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $34.29
- Potential profit
- $34.29
- User PnL
- -$4.2
N
No position
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $30.88
- Potential profit
- $30.88
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $2.55
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $27.45
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$7.35
Yes position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $29.46
- Multiplier
- 55.56x
- User PnL
- -$3.36
Yes position
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $6.45
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $23.55
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$0.95
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?
Ends Jul 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $1.82
- Potential payout
- $28.03
- Potential profit
- $26.21
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$4.73
No position
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $26.67
- Potential profit
- $26.67
- User PnL
- -$4.5
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $23.81
- Potential profit
- $23.81
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election?
Ends Jun 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.65
Bulls position
Bucks vs. Bulls
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Timberwolves position
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.7
Heat position
Rockets vs. Heat
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.1
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $13.68
No position
Iran leadership change by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $8.95
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $8.86
No position
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.2
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.63
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.54
No position
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?
Ends Jun 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.51
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.14
Yes position
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.78
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.72
No position
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.7
Yes position
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 39.6%
- Multiplier
- 2.53x
- User PnL
- $6.22
No position
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.16
Yes position
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.1
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 79.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.26x
- User PnL
- $6.07
Jets position
Blues vs. Jets
Ends Jan 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.96
paiN position
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2
Ends Jun 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.62
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $5.03
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.82
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by September 30?No 49% 1.38 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?No 15.3% 40.1 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?No 72% 1.38 shares
- Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?No 62% 5 shares
- Will Solana dip to $40 by December 31, 2026?No 62% 5 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 76% 3.75 shares
- Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?No 1% 12.28 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 69% 5 shares
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 6% 16.67 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 69% 3.75 shares
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes 84% 2.75 shares
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes 64% 5 shares