WGainfulInsight

Implied probability: 26%
Current value: $49.92
Potential payout: $192
Potential profit: $142.08
Multiplier: 3.85x
User PnL: -$5.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $156
Potential profit: $155.77
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$2.89

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $64.31
Potential payout: $115.87
Potential profit: $51.56
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: -$7.53

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $54.5
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $45.5
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$4.5

No position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $38
Potential payout: $51
Potential profit: $13.01
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $28.98
Potential payout: $44.92
Potential profit: $15.95
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$1.12

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $25.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $14.2
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: -$4.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $10.34
Potential payout: $39
Potential profit: $28.67
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$0.59

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $14.11
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$2.21

No position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 63.5%
Current value: $16.51
Potential payout: $26
Potential profit: $9.49
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: -$1.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $12.75
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $12.25
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 27?

Implied probability: 51%
Current value: $11.22
Potential payout: $22
Potential profit: $10.78
Multiplier: 1.96x
User PnL: -$2.42

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $12.07
Potential profit: $12.06
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $3.66
Potential payout: $10.62
Potential profit: $6.96
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $9
Potential profit: $8.85
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $5.2
Potential payout: $8
Potential profit: $2.8
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $6.3
Potential profit: $6.11
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$0.31

No position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 46.5%
Current value: $2.47
Potential payout: $5.32
Potential profit: $2.85
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.93
Potential profit: $4.93
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $4.2
Potential profit: $4.15
Multiplier: 95.24x
User PnL: -$0.42

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.72
Potential profit: $3.72
User PnL: -$0.47

No position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.11
Potential profit: $3.11
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $1.57
Potential payout: $2.14
Potential profit: $0.57
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: $0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.72

No position

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.63

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 93.5%
Multiplier: 1.07x
User PnL: $1.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 23%
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $0.96

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 17%
Multiplier: 5.88x
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.84

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.83

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 95%
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $0.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 23?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.74

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or below on June 27?

Implied probability: 62.5%
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $0.66

Yes position

Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 26?

Implied probability: 53%
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: $0.62

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.6

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 27?

Implied probability: 2.9%
Multiplier: 34.48x
User PnL: $0.58

No position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.58

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 37°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23?