Polymarket Market
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Live
- Probability
- 70%
- Liquidity
- $84.44K
- Ends
- Oct 4, 2026
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Spread
- 98%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- Unavailable
- Depth
- 45,256.17 / 39,182.69
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 11,080.82 |
| 2% | 700 |
| 3% | 255.44 |
| 4% | 750 |
| 5% | 8,055.24 |
| 6% | 250 |
| 8% | 13.33 |
| 9% | 6,647.49 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 24,652.28 |
| 98% | 2,375.01 |
| 97% | 3,641.85 |
| 96% | 1,405 |
| 95% | 640 |
| 94% | 5,073.72 |
| 93% | 1,037.35 |
| 92% | 78.94 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 72% 138.89 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No 28.7% 7.69 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 70% 8.04 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?No 29.1% 18 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 66% 2.79 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 69% 1.81 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 72% 1.82 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 67% 7 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 72% 2.79 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 70.7% 35.38 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 68% 0.45 shares
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Yes 67.6% 66.54 shares