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Polymarket Market

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Live
FinanceFed RatesEconomyJerome PowellTreasuries
Probability
29.5%
Liquidity
$7.75K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
1%
Best ask
98%
Spread
97%
Last trade
68%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 29.5% Current quote
No 70.5% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
1%
Best ask
98%
Midpoint
49.5%
Spread
97%
Last trade
68%
Depth
4,599.55 / 3,154.18

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
1%58.8
10%155.99
11%2,348
12%1,121.11
13%622
15%10
16%99.99
17%16.5

Asks

PriceSize
98%7.1
95%5
94%400
93%6.37
87%39.61
80%180
75%5
70%1,141.66

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 32% 3.13 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 70% 100 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 31% 32.5 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 32% 1.9 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 54% 1.47 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 68% 1.47 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 31.6% 88 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 56% 15.92 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 44% 38.08 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    Yes 43.8% 52 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 72.7% 142 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
    No 53% 2.95 shares