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Polymarket Market

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Live
FinanceFed RatesEconomyJerome PowellTreasuries
Probability
11.5%
Liquidity
$25.96K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
1%
Best ask
99%
Spread
98%
Last trade
84%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 11.5% Current quote
No 88.5% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
1%
Best ask
99%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
98%
Last trade
84%
Depth
6,195.3 / 19,761.44

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
1%5,004.91
2%10
3%456
4%110
7%318.2
8%211.2
9%54.99
10%30

Asks

PriceSize
99%7,272.16
98%2,000
97%13.06
89%1,400
88%86
84%550
74%438.46
62%317.1

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 84.2% 130.13 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 10.5% 107.36 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 84% 5 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 16.8% 47.5 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 21.1% 118.76 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 17.3% 5.79 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 83.7% 92.2 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 85% 22.98 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 88% 129.11 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    No 87% 30 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 15.4% 25.36 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?
    Yes 15% 8.2 shares