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Polymarket Market

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Live
FinanceFed RatesEconomyJerome PowellTreasuries
Probability
5.7%
Liquidity
$49.06K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Spread
99.8%
Last trade
91.2%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 5.7% Current quote
No 94.4% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
99.8%
Last trade
91.2%
Depth
25,858.72 / 23,200.15

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
0.1%22,220
0.2%2,232.3
1%500
2.1%422.72
2.2%200
2.3%165
2.6%118.7

Asks

PriceSize
99.9%8.62
99.7%10,000
99.6%11.75
97%1,300
96.9%10.85
94%600
90%3,900
89%600

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    No 91.2% 1.28 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    No 97.4% 1.28 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 8.7% 40 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 9.4% 60 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 9.2% 40 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 9.4% 32 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 6.4% 65 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 9.1% 23.02 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 5.1% 12.04 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 8.1% 0.67 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 8.1% 21 shares
  • Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
    Yes 8.1% 30 shares