Polymarket Market
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Live
- Probability
- 9.7%
- Liquidity
- $52.9K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 9.3%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 9.3%
- Depth
- 17,098.57 / 35,803.68
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 9,277 |
| 0.2% | 1,988 |
| 0.3% | 1,184.62 |
| 0.4% | 100 |
| 0.6% | 200 |
| 0.8% | 70 |
| 0.9% | 6.49 |
| 1.4% | 888.51 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 2,208.6 |
| 99.8% | 107.38 |
| 99.7% | 10,066.66 |
| 99.6% | 57.71 |
| 99.5% | 40 |
| 99.4% | 33.33 |
| 99.3% | 28.57 |
| 99.2% | 25 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?No 90.7% 7.84 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 9.9% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 9.9% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 9.9% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 9.9% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 7.6% 619.43 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 5.9% 23.55 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 5.9% 116.15 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 6.5% 43.13 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 6.8% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 6.8% 5 shares
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?Yes 6.9% 5 shares