Polymarket Market
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Live
- Probability
- 23.5%
- Liquidity
- $14.86K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 6%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Spread
- 93%
- Last trade
- 22%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 6%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 52.5%
- Spread
- 93%
- Last trade
- 22%
- Depth
- 1,512.04 / 13,348.8
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 6% | 10 |
| 8% | 310 |
| 10% | 10 |
| 11% | 500 |
| 12% | 10 |
| 14% | 42.39 |
| 15% | 580.42 |
| 18% | 18.92 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 2,000 |
| 98% | 1,000 |
| 94% | 1,500 |
| 88% | 1,030 |
| 84% | 550 |
| 83% | 49.29 |
| 78% | 1,163.63 |
| 74% | 1,321.4 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 22% 5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 22% 5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 22% 5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 22% 5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 18% 86.5 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 18.5% 22.22 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 18.3% 368.07 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 18.4% 200 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 20.3% 100 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 24.7% 144.2 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 24% 1.63 shares
- Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Yes 24% 50 shares