Polymarket Market
Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.
Live
- Probability
- 18%
- Liquidity
- $4.56K
- Ends
- Jan 1, 2027
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 11%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 11%
- Depth
- 923.79 / 3,632.3
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 58.3 |
| 6% | 157.24 |
| 7% | 300.28 |
| 8% | 208.61 |
| 9% | 10 |
| 10% | 132.28 |
| 14% | 9.02 |
| 15% | 48.06 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 2,906.9 |
| 98% | 21.81 |
| 95% | 220 |
| 90% | 100 |
| 89% | 6.97 |
| 78% | 163.63 |
| 76% | 48 |
| 67% | 106.06 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 16.59 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?No 73% 3 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?No 65% 2.56 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 11% 5 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?No 66% 5.12 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 30% 5 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?No 86% 3 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 17% 18.1 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 28% 5 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 26% 5 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 26% 13.1 shares
- Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?Yes 14.3% 33.46 shares