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Polymarket Market

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Live
PoliticsIranTrumpMiddle EastIsraelGeopoliticsWorldMilitary Strikes
Probability
12.5%
Liquidity
$5.76M
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
1%
Best ask
99%
Spread
98%
Last trade
88%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 12.5% Current quote
No 87.5% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
1%
Best ask
99%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
98%
Last trade
88%
Depth
4,812,039.68 / 950,738.13

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
1%2,386,122.34
2%301,576.3
3%628,911.83
4%106,479.4
5%107,715.24
6%119,955.94
7%34,815.33
8%103,129.96

Asks

PriceSize
99%202,843.35
98%22,378.08
97%6,503.92
96%1,024
95%18,180.24
94%1,000
93%8.83
92%2,356

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 88% 760.88 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    Yes 13% 7.69 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 1,500 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 19.61 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 5.18 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 12.7 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 1.06 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 779.96 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    Yes 12% 9.47 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    Yes 12% 0.17 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 397.17 shares
  • Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
    No 87% 4 shares