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Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Live
PoliticsTrumpSBFSam bankman freid
Probability
4%
Liquidity
$355.54K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Spread
99.8%
Last trade
3.9%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 4% Current quote
No 96% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
99.8%
Last trade
3.9%
Depth
99,396.54 / 256,143.23

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
0.1%66,591.85
0.2%4,332
0.3%1,667
0.4%750
1%1,968.25
1.2%5,611.11
1.3%385
1.5%10,000

Asks

PriceSize
99.9%2,000
99.7%40,000
99.5%30,000
99.4%50,000
99%500
98%64,800
96%15.74
95%14,320

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 96.1% 1.04 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 95.9% 101 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 95.8% 27.03 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 95.8% 22 shares
  • Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
    No 95.9% 17.1 shares