Polymarket Market
Fed rate hike in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Live
- Probability
- 63.5%
- Liquidity
- $1.51M
- Ends
- Dec 9, 2026
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 63%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 63%
- Depth
- 1,337,652.9 / 176,737.4
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 1,067,631.58 |
| 2% | 12,933.62 |
| 3% | 31,654.67 |
| 4% | 4,687.5 |
| 5% | 15,388.54 |
| 6% | 24,733.33 |
| 7% | 3,781.79 |
| 8% | 10,000 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 44,513.96 |
| 98% | 21,736.22 |
| 97% | 43,742.5 |
| 96% | 18,872.75 |
| 95% | 10,868.54 |
| 94% | 3,300 |
| 93% | 1,276.79 |
| 92% | 5 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 2.73 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 63% 6.6 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 36% 5,000 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 2.7 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 36% 519.38 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 10.89 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 64% 5 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 9.5 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 63% 5 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 64% 5 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?No 37% 7.08 shares
- Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes 64% 214 shares