Polymarket Market
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Live
- Probability
- 53.5%
- Liquidity
- $2.89K
- Ends
- Oct 1, 2026
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 50%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 50%
- Depth
- 442.7 / 2,444.74
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 20 |
| 2% | 21 |
| 3% | 7.61 |
| 11% | 36 |
| 13% | 45.33 |
| 14% | 50 |
| 24% | 7.33 |
| 39% | 7.5 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 54.35 |
| 98% | 35 |
| 97% | 5.5 |
| 95% | 35 |
| 94% | 1,057.09 |
| 92% | 35 |
| 89% | 600 |
| 88% | 20 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 50% 12.24 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 48.5% 16.48 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 55% 34.29 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 53% 34.29 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 57% 29.77 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 33% 26.31 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 33% 7.97 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 34% 6 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 50% 5 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?Yes 52% 50 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 46.2% 36 shares
- Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m square kilometers?No 52% 36 shares