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Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Live
CryptoScienceBitcoinquantumProtocol Upgrade
Probability
4.9%
Liquidity
$84.19K
Ends
Dec 31, 2026
Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Spread
99.8%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 4.9% Current quote
No 95.2% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
0.1%
Best ask
99.9%
Midpoint
50%
Spread
99.8%
Last trade
Unavailable
Depth
56,472.62 / 27,714.45

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
0.1%26,009
0.2%11,366
0.3%336
0.4%5,000
0.6%2,500
1%2,000
1.1%800
1.9%1,354.89

Asks

PriceSize
99.9%3,000
99.8%10,005.12
99.5%2,500
99.4%11.23
98.8%3,414.28
95.2%55.36
95%20
94.9%6.16

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    Yes 4.9% 66.61 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 94.8% 2.38 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    Yes 5.1% 37 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95.1% 10 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    Yes 4.9% 13.15 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 94.9% 24.19 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95.1% 24.19 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95% 15 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95% 2.51 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95% 20 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 95.1% 4.71 shares
  • Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
    No 94.8% 1.24 shares