Polymarket Market
Natural Disaster in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Live
- Probability
- 18%
- Volume
- $223.44K
- Liquidity
- $925.61
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 18%
- Best ask
- 25%
- Spread
- 7%
- Last trade
- 18%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 1%
- Best ask
- 99%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 98%
- Last trade
- 82%
- Depth
- 4,259.31 / 5,005.45
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 1% | 1,107.22 |
| 2% | 1,350 |
| 3% | 531.75 |
| 5% | 70 |
| 6% | 9.25 |
| 8% | 10 |
| 9% | 50 |
| 12% | 1,048.5 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99% | 1,015.57 |
| 98% | 2,600 |
| 97% | 250 |
| 96% | 16.1 |
| 75% | 332 |
| 66% | 22.22 |
| 62% | 81.54 |
| 48% | 14.58 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 18% 7.14 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 25% 4 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 26% 20 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 28% 14.29 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?No 82% 6.1 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 28% 35.77 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 25.9% 77.25 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 20.5% 97.75 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 19% 6.66 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 19% 3.57 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 20% 15.38 shares
- Natural Disaster in 2026?Yes 20% 198.75 shares