Polymarket Market
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Live
- Probability
- 24.3%
- Volume
- $155.06K
- Liquidity
- $4.86K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 7%
- Best ask
- 10.6%
- Spread
- 3.6%
- Last trade
- 24.3%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 90.9%
- Depth
- 26,695.5 / 40,217.5
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 25,744 |
| 0.2% | 333 |
| 1% | 110 |
| 1.1% | 363.63 |
| 1.2% | 8.11 |
| 1.9% | 10 |
| 2.3% | 10 |
| 2.9% | 10 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 2,000 |
| 99.8% | 8.8 |
| 99% | 11,343.75 |
| 98.9% | 6.28 |
| 98% | 4,568.76 |
| 97% | 3,443.75 |
| 96% | 2,031.25 |
| 95% | 1,157.49 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 90.9% 10.41 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 24.3% 411.5 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 93.2% 18.65 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 19.2% 104.18 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 82.7% 1.32 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 93.9% 16 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 92% 13.03 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 94.5% 28 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 94.5% 30 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?No 94.5% 15.49 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 13.2% 75.5 shares
- Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Yes 5.5% 14.88 shares