Polymarket Market
Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.
Live
- Probability
- 4.9%
- Volume
- $186.53K
- Liquidity
- $7.17K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 4.8%
- Best ask
- 4.9%
- Spread
- 0.1%
- Last trade
- 4.9%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 95.1%
- Depth
- 70,517.62 / 31,705.02
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 41,009 |
| 0.2% | 11,366 |
| 0.3% | 336 |
| 0.4% | 5,000 |
| 0.6% | 2,500 |
| 1% | 2,000 |
| 1.9% | 1,354.89 |
| 2% | 1,000 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 3,179.99 |
| 99.8% | 10,007.6 |
| 99.5% | 2,500 |
| 98.8% | 3,314.28 |
| 98.7% | 17.67 |
| 95.2% | 55.36 |
| 95% | 20 |
| 90% | 3,400 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?Yes 4.9% 66.61 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 94.8% 2.38 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?Yes 5.1% 37 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95.1% 10 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?Yes 4.9% 13.15 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 94.9% 24.19 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95.1% 24.19 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95% 15 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95% 2.51 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95% 20 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 95.1% 4.71 shares
- Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?No 94.8% 1.24 shares