Polymarket Market
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Live
- Probability
- 6.8%
- Volume
- $34.93M
- Liquidity
- $579.34K
- Ends
- Dec 31, 2026
- Best bid
- 6.7%
- Best ask
- 6.8%
- Spread
- 0.1%
- Last trade
- 6.8%
Outcomes
Market outcomes
Live pricing
Pricing and liquidity
Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.
- Best bid
- 0.1%
- Best ask
- 99.9%
- Midpoint
- 50%
- Spread
- 99.8%
- Last trade
- 93.2%
- Depth
- 15,740,723.75 / 1,495,892.82
Price history
Waiting for price history
History unavailable
Bids
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 0.1% | 11,918,882.95 |
| 0.2% | 1,217,697.12 |
| 0.3% | 806,325.06 |
| 0.4% | 164,476.9 |
| 0.5% | 120,479.42 |
| 0.6% | 69,087.26 |
| 0.7% | 86,110.8 |
| 0.8% | 77,990.37 |
Asks
| Price | Size |
|---|---|
| 99.9% | 173,491.96 |
| 99.8% | 40,280.22 |
| 99.7% | 90,000 |
| 99.6% | 21,391.31 |
| 99.5% | 132,000 |
| 99.4% | 2,500 |
| 99.3% | 5.53 |
| 99.2% | 4,096 |
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this market.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 5.33 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.3% 5.34 shares