Polymarket Market

Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Live
Probability
27%
Volume
$101.32K
Liquidity
$465.84
Ends
Jul 30, 2026
Best bid
26%
Best ask
54%
Spread
28%
Last trade
27%

Outcomes

Market outcomes

Yes 40% Current quote
No 60% Current quote

Live pricing

Pricing and liquidity

Current bid, ask, midpoint, spread, and market depth for this outcome.

Best bid
4%
Best ask
99%
Midpoint
51.5%
Spread
95%
Last trade
35%
Depth
229.38 / 2,648.28

Price history

Waiting for price history

History unavailable

Bids

PriceSize
4%100
5%20
20%40
22%4.38
23%20
26%45

Asks

PriceSize
99%900
98%30
89%600
82%550
70%5
55%63.28
54%500

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this market.

  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 65% 19 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    Yes 27% 4.29 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    Yes 27% 6 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    Yes 27% 3.7 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 78% 1.41 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 66% 11 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 70% 2 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 70% 4 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 70% 10 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 66% 14 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    Yes 31% 5.02 shares
  • Will Jack Thorne win the 2026 Fields Medal?
    No 67% 2.04 shares